6-Win Keeneland Friday, JP's Saturday Analysis Set
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 21, 2023
What to Watch for Today: Three-year-old sprinters share the spotlight today in the Perryville Stakes and Grade 2 Raven Run. We’ll see how the track plays while drying out Saturday compared to the slopfest Friday that produced 9 of 10 winners within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead throughout. It was our best handicapping day of the meet with 6 winners on top and 3 more second choices hitting the winners’ circle. Fingers crossed for more.
Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 4,8,10.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Friday’s wet conditions are to give way to a mostly sunny Saturday with temps in the high 60s. The turf course should have some give in it after prior rains, but hopeful we can get back on the grass after being off Friday.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
Race 1
Upper-level claimers at the $62,500 level start the early pick 5 at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 11-22 in claiming races at the current meet (15-22 in the exacta) coming into Saturday. We’ve had 17 such dirt claimers for $50K or higher in open conditions in Fall Meets with very few discernible trends appearing. Earlier this meet, Armando Hernandez popped a 16-1 upset in a similar spot with Lucky Boss, and yesterday that barn added another winner at the meet to go 2-for-2 to date. He’ll counter with Comiskey Park via Illinois. Early speed is definitely the preferred profile at this class/trip and most of the key contenders on paper here have it. Chris Hartman has 4 wins at the meet, all in claiming or maiden claiming races, and looks to add with Vulvan. Francisco Arrieta partnered on a pair of the previous Hartman scores. Cold as Hell can give Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas his first Keeneland win since Fall 2021 and just his second since 2019.
Race 2
Maiden claiming 2-year-olds match up at 6 furlongs to open the early pick 4. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to Ready for Trouble (for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 MCL wins at the meet), Fasta Lavista Baby, Red Sun Dress, Wreck It Ruby and Loveya Loveya More. But it’s Saratoga-repped class dropper Dancing Nancy who catches the eye after a fourth-place finish behind Candied, who since has come here to win the Grade 2 Alcibiades Stakes on opening day. She’s trained by Chad Brown, rarely seen here in MCL races, but a winner earlier this meet with St. Benedict’s Prep at 3-1 odds. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile.The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed.
Race 3
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to Spanish Doubloon, Solevo, Bourbon Fever, Colonel Barton and Back to Reality (for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 MCL wins at the meet) from the main body of the field. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed.
Race 4
Allowance turf milers kick off the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Favorites are just 1-8 in turf miles at the current meet and we’ve seen 3 winners go off 10-1 or more. Only 1 winner led at the half-mile point and the average winner has been 2-1/2 lengths back at that juncture. This race looks to have an exceptionally fast pace on paper, furthering the desire to find a closer to match the trends. Five of eight turf mile winners at the meet came via Kentucky Downs (as have 6 of the 12 turf ALW winners so far), good news for Do You Love Me, Oeuvre and Viareggio. The latter was a stalking turf winner here in the Spring Meet and has European experience and pedigree that should appreciate the likely softer footing from Friday’s rains. Adaay in Asia makes a similar case and brings a rallying style from New York.
Race 5
The Saturday pick 6 begins with a 2-year-old maiden special on dirt at 6-1/2 furlongs. Favorites are 4-11 at the current meet after the chalk won Thursday’s 2YO MSW dirt offering with only 1 winner topping 6-1 odds. Five first-time starters lead the way, followed by 3 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. I’ll lean to rookies in here because the Churchill alumni mostly come from a common race in which 6 horses finishing within 2-1/2 lengths at the wire in a modest 1:11 for 6 furlongs. Gotta think the rookies have more to offer. Aunt Fannie is half-sister to stars Four Graces and McCracken for Whitham Thoroughbreds’ breeding operation. Bedazzle ‘Em is a half-sister to last year’s debut winner and next-out Schuylerville winner Just Cindy. Veteran top Kee dirt sires Candy Ride (Best of All) and Denim and Pearls (Into Mischief) are well-represented. Brad Cox and Wesley Ward are the only trainers with 2 wins at the meet with 2YO dirt MSWs; Ward is absent here, but Cox saddles Denim and Pearls.
Race 6
The co-featured $250,000 Perryville Stakes is next at 7 furlongs and begins the late pick 5. This is the third year back for the Perryville as a regular part of the Fall Meet schedule. Both winners came via 7-furlong preps at Churchill, including top-class Gunite a year ago. This year’s CD cast includes Grade 2 Rebel winner and Kentucky Derby layoff type Confidence Game as well as the recently stakes-placed Loyal Company. Brad Cox won the Perryville 2 years ago and he’ll look to regain the crown with potential lone speed Verifying from the rail. Verifying was a neck runner-up in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes to Tapit Trice and went on to win the Indiana Derby. Of the 42 Kee dirt stakes at 7F in our database, 30 of the winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Only 7 closed more than 5 lengths at that point. And only 3 winners turned back from a two-turn route like Confidence Game and Raise Cain attempt. From a pure visual standpoint, I have been highly impressed with Maryland invader Post Time throughout his brief career.
Race 7
The late pick 4 opener is a 1-1/16 miles maiden special weight for elders. We’ve had 21 such races for this age, class and route dirt performers in Fall Meets with an average winner just 7-2 odds. No winner has topped 8-1 odds. Sixteen of 21 winners were within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 2-1/2 lengths back at that point), while only 3 led early. Churchill produced 11 winners, almost doubling NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) with 6. Lean to those with a mile or longer last prep, responsible for 18 of 21 winners. Pedigree notables here include longshots Game Keeper and Alexander Helios, by solid Kee dirt route influences Honor Code and Cairo Prince.
Race 8
Turf route allowance performers comprise the middle leg of today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Kentucky Downs preppers have won 6 of the 12 turf ALW races at the current meet and we’ve got a half-dozen such options in this spot. Horses adding distance have won 4 of the 5 turf ALW races at this trip during the current meet, and the average winner has been 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. A KD closer who’s adding distance squares up nicely with Poca Mucha, Seisa, Walkathon and Haughty. The latter ran one of the most visually impressive turf maiden races I can recall at Keeneland when winning here in the ’21 Fall Meet. She’s not been back since, but don’t be shocked if the Chad Brown trainee doesn’t flock to it once again. Lovely Princess is 2-for-2 over the course and 1-for-9 elsewhere.
Race 9
The Grade 3 $350,000 Raven Run matches 3-year-old fillies over 7 furlongs. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, the Raven Run has had 4 winning favorites but 3 upsetters at 13-1 or more – feast or famine. Saratoga has produced 3 of those winners, good news for favorites Alva Starr and Dazzling Blue, but interestingly the Charles Town Oaks also has 2 winners of repute and looks for a third with Vahva. Penn National-based trainer Todd Beattie came here to win this race in 2014 with Taris and returns with Simply Stated, riding a 4-race win streak. But note 6 of these 9 fillies enter off victories. The only Kee dirt experience in the field includes an allowance runner-up Vahva in April and Lady Radler’s ’22 Fall Meet second in the Myrtlewood Stakes. Of the 42 Kee dirt stakes at 7F in our database, 30 of the winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Only 7 closed more than 5 lengths at that point. And only 3 winners turned back from a two-turn route like Nom de Plume and Anicent Peace attempt.
Race 10
The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 closes with an allowance turf sprint. Five of the 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Axthem and Counterstrike as the only KD preppers. I’m intrigued what regally bred Zatip can do here after a year on the sidelines. He’s a Tapit new gelding out of Zaftig, a brilliantly fast mare. A turf sprint might work for him while fresh and drawn very well. It’s a rare local turf sprint with no representation by situational kingpin Wesley Ward.