$54K P6 Carryover at Keeneland; Plonks Picks & Stats Set for Wednesday

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Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 25, 2023

What to Watch for Today: A carryover of $54,576 awaits horseplayers in Wednesday’s $1 pick 6 to start closing week of the 2023 Fall Meet. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 4,6,8 and keep in mind that Races 4 & 5 will be swing races in the day’s key multi-race bets both early and late.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Partly cloudy skies with a high of 77 degrees is in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Maiden claimers route the rare 1-1/8 miles trip in the closing week kickoff, which starts the early pick 5. We’ve only had 6 such races in Fall Meets at this trip, all 6 winners within a length of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner just a half-length back at that point). Five winners prepped between 7F and 1 mile, the other at 1-1/16 miles … 4 were making surface changes. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). Unwrapped and Away From home both exit Churchill races at 7-1/2 fulrongs and have some ability to race forward, fitting the trends. Kenny McPeek (Solomon Vandy) and Ben Colebrook (Coure d’Oro) both have won a pair of MCL races at the current Fall Meet.

2nd Race

The increasingly popular starter allowance condition is in play over 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. We’ve had 8 of them at the meet and 7 winners were 5-1 or less in a pretty formful category though favorites are just 1-for-8. The average winner has been just 1 length off the lead after the opening half-mile with only 1 of 8 captured from a horse well off the pace. Churchill preppers produced 4 of the 8 winners. Trainer Chris Hartman’s 5 wins this meeting put him in contention for the trainer’s title and he’ll have My Good Fortune via CD. Dre Me Less goes for a Norm Casse barn with a 9F starter win this Fall Meet and with a Kee-best 6 such Fall Meet starter allowance wins on dirt over the years (no other trainer more than 2).

3rd Race

Two-year-old maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the carryover pick 6 begins. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). Six of the 11 here hail from CD, so that’s a good place to start. The 8 juvenile MCL races this meet have averaged a $15 mutuel with 4 winners via CD and 3 first-time starters (1 KD). Trainer Dale Romans is historically strong with 2YO dirt routers at Kee and has Wee Bit of Mischief here via CD, as is Rodolphe Brisset with fellow CD alum Up to the Edge.

4th Race

The late pick 5 opens with allowance turf sprinters, and this will also start the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Because of the rail position, this race will be restricted to 10 runners. The inside-outside posts aren’t nearly as disadvantaged with this configuration as the capacity 12-horse fields. Eight of 11 turf sprint winners this meet closed more than 2 lengths after the first half-mile, average just under 3 lengths back at that stage. Kentucky Downs preppers have 4 of the wins, no other circuit more than 1. Flavien Prat has a meet-best 3 turf sprint wins and partners with longshot Just Say When. Double Clutch is the only course winner in the field, at a mile, however. Trainer Rusty Arnold is one of Kee’s top turf sprint trainers. The X factor is Evangeline Downs debut romper Donegal Mischief, since purchased and moved to Brad Cox. In the 17 years of our database, only 1 EVD shipper has won, that coming in a $10K dirt claimer in 2015.

5th Race

The late pick 4 starts with 2-year-old maiden special weights sprinting 7 furlongs. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Tarifa debuts and can give Brad Cox a meet-best fourth 2YO MSW win on dirt (2 of 3 so far were rookies). Longshot lookers consider Waggle Pass, a rookie by sire Dialed In, having a fantastic meet with 4 offspring winning, including a pair of first-time starters.

6th Race

This 2-year-old turf allowance route serves as middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We only have 10 such races in the database for the age/surface/distance. Trainer Graham Motion is the only trainer with 2 such victories and sends out both Ask Amanda and Yatta. Seven of the winners were rising in class off of MSW races, while 3 dropped out of stakes like Yatta, Sweetcatherinerose, Smooth Waves and Kamikaze Umagi attempt. Favorites are 3-10 with an average winner just under 7-1. The 10 winners come from 8 different circuits (only KD and CD have doubled up). Four of 10 stretched out from sprints, so a slight edge to route experience only.

7th Race

The featured race is a 7-furlong second-level (N2X) allowance sprint on dirt. Favorites are a representative 6-16 in dirt ALW races this Fall Meet with an average winner around 5.5-to-1. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled at the top with 6 and 5 wins, respectively. Only 1 of 9 dirt ALW sprints has been own by the half-mile leader, but 8 of 9 were within 2 lengths at that juncture. While represented by longshots here, note sire Street Sense has had a fabulous meet with 4 dirt winners and has Fan Club and Santos Dumont here. Nelson Avenue is by top Kee dirt sire Into Mischief and out of Via Strata, a mare whose only Kee appearance resulted in an 8-length allowance victory in Spring 2015. Trainer Phil Bauer is having a great meet with limited starters and seeks a third dirt ALW win of the stand when he saddles Angkor.

8th Race

Elder turf maiden special weight milers wrap the card at the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve only had 2 such races at the current meet, but 47 of them in the database. Favorites are a woeful 11 for 47 with an average winner about 5.5-to-1. Kentucky Downs holds a 16-13 prep locale edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) .. Churchill a woeful 3 winners. Only 1 rookie has succeeded like Added Mischief and Nation attempt, and the former is second choice on the morning line. The KD set includes As One Does, Little Nick, Heart N Soul and Weyhill Road from the main body of the field. Trainer Shug McGaughey won 2 of these races in the 2021 Fall Meet at 8-1 and 11-1 odds and has Weyhill Road via KD like one of those upsetters. But given favorites’ troubles historically in these spots, the non-favorited logical horse from KD could be Heart N Soul. Mike Maker’s 5 such wins are most of any trainer and consider Stonks via KD if that one draws in from the also-eligible list.