$52K Pick 6 Keeneland Carryover | Plonk's Wednesday Picks

Pick Six Suggestion (begins Race 3): 1,8 with 7,5,1 with 9,11,7,6 with 1,4 with 4,5 with 6 = $96.

Don’t forget the $2,000 late pick four Hit & Split promo with my friends at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 18, 2023

What to Watch for Today: A pick 6 carryover of $52,497 welcomes Week 3 of the Fall Meet. The $1 pick 6 wager begins in Race 3 on an 8-race card. Note that the 8-race programs include key swing races in the 4th and 5th that are vital in the early and late pick fours and fives.

The Keeneland Turf Pick Three will not be offered with just Race 7 slated for grass Wednesday. The Turf Pick Three returns Thursday.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies with autumn temps in the upper 60s are in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Maiden claimers sprint 7 furlongs to open the early pick five. Favorites are 1-9 in MCL races so far this Fall Meet, but 8 winners have been 7-1 or less and very good betting races. Churchill preppers have 4 of the wins and first-timers have been shut out. Ellis Park has a pair of victories. Speed has not held as well as past meets in these MCL sprints with the average winner more than 3 lengths back after the opening half-mile – more than 2 lengths farther back than MCL sprint par over the years. Closers via Churchill may be the play, giving edges to Lady Free Will (by sharp Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed), Stage Bell (by excellent local sire Union Rags) and Imperator Furiosa (by another strong Kee dirt sire in Super Saver).

2nd Race

The early pick four begins with a 6-furlong starter allowance sprint. We’ve had 51 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets and the average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-51. But note 44 of 51 winners were 8-1 or less, including all 4 this meet between 3-1 and 5-1. These have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill preppers own 20 of the wins, far outgunning Horseshoe Indianapolis next with 5. The 4 races this Fall Meet have been spread out, however. Lykan was a maiden special weight winner here in Fall 2021 as a 2YO over this 6F trip. Blue Kentucky is also a local winner (with 2 runner-ups in 3 starts at Kee on dirt), winning a 7F claiming sprint here in Fall 2022. Both come off recent wins and are in peak form.

3rd Race

The $52,497 carryover pick six starts with a 1-1/16 miles non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for East Shore via Ellis and Windy Bay via Kentucky Downs on turf. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is East Shore’s open maiden special weight at Churchill.

4th Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to kickstart the late pick five. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for Wits and Wagers and CC Cruise Control. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is Such Sounds open maiden special weight on turf here at Keeneland in the ’23 Spring Meet. She’s by Cairo Prince, an outstanding Kee dirt sire, while Wits and Wagers is by strong Kee dirt sire Union Rags.

5th Race

Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters match up over 7 furlongs in the opening leg of the late pick four. More than two-thirds of MSW 2YO dirt Fall races are won by horses via Churchill Downs or first-time starters. They've won 7 of 9 so far this meet, including 5 rookies. The CD alumni here don’t inspire, so first-time starter It’smyluckytime is among several rookies of note here. He’s by strong Kee dirt sire Not This Time and trainer Todd Pletcher already has won 3 juvenile races this meeting, including the Alcibiades Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity. So Smooth is a Chad Brown trainee by strong Kee dirt sire Curlin and formidable. Steve Asmussen’s 4 wins in Kee Fall 7F 2YO MSW races are most of any trainer and he’s got Blue Line debuting. Note Pletcher (3 such wins) as well as Brad Cox (3 such wins) are repped, the latter by Air of Defiance.

6th Race

Second-level (N2X) allowance runners go 1-1/16 miles on dirt in Wednesday’s feature race. Trainer Brad Cox has more Fall Meet dirt route ALW wins than any other trainer (8) and sends out Ashland runner-up Punchbowl and Curlin filly Insignia from the rail. We’ve noted here Cox hits more than 31% in Kee 1-1/16 miles races (45% with favorites) and is phenomenal with those runners from the rail, winning an incredible 9 of 13, so perhaps Insignia can upset her more noted stablemate. Scratch Kat was second in a similar race to this one during the ’22 Fall Meet, while Jag Warrior won here during the same meet at 7F via disqualification.

7th Race

The lone turf race on the card is a 1-1/16 miles grass allowance for entry-level (N1X) runners. Turf allowance races have been total chalk this meet so far with 7 of 10 favorites winning and not a single payoff above 4-1 odds. Five winners hailed from Kentucky Downs preps, no other circuit more than 1 winner so far. Seven of these come via KD, but it’s the right place to start whittling. If the chalk train continues, Chad Brown’s KD recent winner Hola Gata would be no surprise at all. Trainer Victoria Oliver has a pair of grass wins at the current meet and aims for a third with Our Dotsie off a Kentucky Downs effort.  The average winner in 1-1/16 miles turf races this meet so far has been 5 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, playing heavily toward late runners.

8th Race

Two-year-old maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the finale.  Lean heavily toward experienced runners here, who have won 40 of 50 such MCL juvenile dashes in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites underperform slightly around 30% with an average winner a very juicy 7-to-1 odds. Churchill preppers have 21 of the wins (no other circuit more than 5), including Andy’s Candy at 3-1 in last week’s offering. Running Munnin and This Time Blue are the CD reps worth a long look (the latter trained by Chris Hartman, who saddled Andy’s Candy in a similar win last week), while experienced NYRA prepper Catalina Crush also makes a ton of sense. The winner figures to come from that group if Ozone fails to draw in from the AE list.