3 on top, 4 second choices Sat; Jeremy's Sun Keeneland Picks
Let’s see if we can’t build on a decent Saturday. Race 5 today is part of the early and late pick five and one of my key plays so far this meet.
Reminder that my friends at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET offer a $2,000 Hit & Split bonus each Keeneland racing day on the late pick four wager.
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 15, 2023
What to Watch for Today: Reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Caravel is back in Race 7 today to defend her title in the Grade 2 $350,000 Franklin Stakes. April’s winner of the local Giant’s Causeway Stakes, Twilight Gleaming, also looks to add to her Keeneland ledger in the featured race.
Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,7,9 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Cloudy skies with temps in the mid to upper 50s are in the forecast.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
Race 1
Maiden claimers sprint about 7 furlongs in the opener to the early pick five. The first 6 MCL races this meet produced no winning favorites and an average winner at 6-1 odds. Five different last-out locales provided the 6 winners, only Ellis Park doubling up. Historically 7F MCL races are split almost dead-even in Fall Meets between horses who ran shorter and longer than 7F last time with no edge. Brad Cox leads all trainers with 19 Kee MCL dirt wins and sends out Derrick. Kenny McPeek is third-most with 16 and has Dario.
Race 2
A field of 6 first-level (N1X) allowance 2-year-olds match up over 1-1/16 miles to start the early pick four. Brad Cox’s 5 juvenile ALW wins at Kee on dirt are most of any trainer and he’s a 31% winner overall at this distance locally over the years, so Show Off has to be considered. Todd Pletcher’s rail-drawn Courbe goes for a barn that’s won a trio of juvenile races at the meet, a MSW and a pair of major stakes, the Breeders’ Futurity and Alcbiades. Courbe comes out of a one-turn mile at Churchill and I love those kind stretching out to the two-turn, short-stretch 1-1/16 miles trips at Keeneland. Same goes for Riperton, sho also ran last time out in the Pocahontas vs. Courbe.
Race 3
Dual-condition claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others. The quartet of CD preppers here should be respected (Yolanda Who, Dogwoodsmilliejane, Beack Kitten, Ship It), but also don’t overlook via Indy the filly Sunday Grace, who had been competitive at this class level this summer at Ellis. Trainer Michael Tomlinson has a sharp 10-34 mark (29% wins) in Kee dirt claimers and sends out You’re Avoiding Me, a major player here via Colonial.
Race 4
Maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the Sunday pick six begins. The first 6 MCL races this meet produced no winning favorites and an average winner at 6-1 odds. Five different last-out locales provided the 6 winners, only Ellis Park doubling up. Brad Cox leads all trainers with 19 Kee MCL dirt wins and sends out Desert Wolf. Not only is Cox tough in MCLs, but in 1-1/16 miles races where he hits a wild 31% at Kee, and from the rail in those 1-1/16 miles races a crazy 11: 7-1-0 coming into the weekend. Kenny McPeek and Wesley Ward are tied at third-most with 16 such MCL wins and have Honor Gold and The Gatekeeper, respectively.
Race 5
The swing race to today’s early and late pick five is a turf sprint allowance, which also kicks off the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Power posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge at historically big prices in these full-field turf sprints, and we saw $25 winner Arzak from post 5 in the only such opportunity at the current meet when he won the Woodford Stakes. Barring scratches, Tut’s Revenge, Heaven Street and Mark of the Z have the posts to watch here. Mark of the Z is preferred among those with a strong local turf sprint record in tow and with a very hot pace projected for his late-running move. Go Bears Go is drawn outside for Wesley Ward, far and away Keeneland’s turf sprint king with 46 wins in our database (no other trainer more than 8!). Cloudy is a local course and distance winner and by Noble Mission bred to love it here. Biz Biz Buzz tries Kee for the first time, but beware sire Fed Biz has surprisingly strong local turf numbers with his offspring, particularly in turf sprints.
Race 6
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters go 7 furlongs in the kickoff to the late pick four. First-time starters and Churchill preppers are the dominant players in these races historically, and this meet 4 of the first 5 such races went that direction (3 FTS, 1 CD). Sweet Violet will try to give trainer Ian Wilkes a meet-best third 2YO MSW win of the meet. His previous pair came on turf at 10-1 and 3-1 prices. Sweet Violet was runner-up last out at Churchill behind a filly who came back to run second here in allowance company Oct. 6. Among the rookies of note are Sweet Sunshine for Brad Cox, out of a debut-winning dam who was a stakes winner at this 7F trip; and Final Draft, a sharp-working Constitution filly for Mark Casse, whose 2YO Fall Meet success at Kee has been stellar for many years. Also-eligible first-timer Best of All deserves a long look if in, being by longtime Kee dirt influencer Candy Ride and out of a debut-winning mare who was runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and later stakes-placed dirt sprinting.
Race 7
The Grade 2 $350,000 Franklin Stakes serves as middle leg in today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Favorites have won this race 3 of the last 4 years, including 2022 by Caravel, who would go on to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint glory thereafter and returns as the chalk Sunday. None of the last 15 winners of this race led after the opening half-mile, while Caravel pressed last year successfully in victory. From the rail draw, it will be interesting to see if she’ll let the speed go ahead of her and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. With a field of 9, we’re not nearly as concerned about post positions here as we are in full-field turf sprints. Joel Rosario, Kee’s top turf sprint jockey, has 3 wins in this race (2014, 2016, 2019) and partners with Wakanaka, who should be passing horses late and won the Fall Harvest Stakes here last year on Breeders’ Cup weekend turf miling. Twilight Gleaming won the Spring Meet’s Giant’s Causeway Stakes and looks for a season sweep for trainer Wesley Ward, whose 46 wins in our database in Kee turf sprints easily crushes all other outfits (no other trainer more than 8!).
Race 8
First-level (N1X) allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. Horses who added distance since their last start have won two-thirds of the Fall Meet ALW sprints at this trip. Only 2 of 32 winners rallied from more than 3 lengths back after the first half-mile to win, so lean speed. You Ain’t Poppin, Larry the Poet, Talkin’ Cash are the horses adding distance and all 3 have enough early speed to contend near the front. You Ain’t Poppin is the CD prepper of that group, joined in here by Bourbon Bash and Pensacola. Talkin’ Cash hasn’t raced at Keeneland, but sire Not This Time has outstanding numbers with his local offspring, as does Pensacola’s sire Into Mischief.
Race 9
The finale wraps today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 with a second-level (N2X) allowance for the grass marathoners at 1-1/2 miles. We’ve had 35 of these in our database in Fall Meets and no winner has been over 9-1 odds (average just 7-2 odds). Deep closers have ruled with an average winner 5-3/4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Kentucky Downs and NYRA preppers each have 10 wins. Note 27 of 35 winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer last out. Trainer Mike Maker and Graham Motion both have a Kee-best 5 turf marathon ALW wins in the Fall, and saddle Stir Crazy and Amani’s Image, respectively.