$267K Pick 6 Carryover Day Keeneland Updated Selections, Stats from JP
Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Thursday, April 25, 2024
What to Watch for Today: A $286K two-day pick 6 carryover on Races 4-9 takes center stage this afternoon. It’s also an extreme Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today in Races 2,5,8 that features a 2-year-old maiden turf sprint on one end of the spectrum, and 1-3/16 miles and 1-1/2 miles allowances on the other. Not only will Race 5 be a keystone in the Turf Pick 3, but it’s the swing race between the early and late pick 5 on a 9-race card. Put extra work in there.
Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points.
Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.
Weather: Sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s are forecasted for a fantastic afternoon. Should be fast and firm conditions.
My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).
Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!
1st Race
Three-year-olds and older maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on the dirt to start the early pick 5. Favorites are 3-13 in MCL races this current meet coming into the week with an average winner a juicy 7-1. As many winners 10-1 or more (3) have won as favorites. Turfway runners are dominating with 8 wins (Oaklawn next with 2), but that’s hard to see continuing with just Can’t See You representing TP. True Faith comes in via Oaklawn and is a $575K son of longtime strong Kee dirt influence Candy Ride. Kenny McPeek (Conflicted) already has a pair of MCL wins at the meet through 3 weeks. I prefer the elders in most cases in these races and Main Line Cipher and Surface to Air are the 4-year-olds I’ll back, even giving up 8 pounds.
2nd Race
The 2-year-old turf sprinters get a rare appearance in the early pick 4 opener. We’ve only had 5 of these since debuting in Spring ’21, and it’s been the Wesley Ward show. He’s won 4 of the 5, all as favored and 3 at odds-on offerings. Ward sends out the Good Magic colt Monterey Bay and also-eligible Johnny Come Lately (by Hootenanny, a local turf sprint winner in 2015). Power posts 3-4-5 are strong plays in full-field turf sprints, so if you want to topple Ward, consider Chado, Cheval de Guerre and Bright Skittle (barring scratches). Cheval de Guerre is by Caravaggio (as is Graydaria), who sired the local turf sprint winner Her World. Widest-drawn Into Diamonds is by Into Mischief, whose 6 turf sprint winners at Kee is second-most by any sire (City Zip, 7). KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE
3rd Race
An upper-level $50,000 claimer over 1-1/16 miles drew a compact field of 6. Joel Rosario is historically razor sharp in short-field races over this trip at Keeneland, winning 36%. He’ll pilot Cooke Creek. Luis Saez, aboard Sugoi, also excels (30%). 11 of the 15 winners were within 1 length of the lead after the first half-mile, so give speed extra looks. We have 15 Spring Meet unrestricted dirt claimers for $50K or more and 8 of the winners came via Fair Grounds (no other circuit more than 3). That’s good news for lone FG rep Tiwanaku. She debuted a good second here in Fall 2020 and hasn’t been back since. Her mama Daisy Devine won the Jenny Wiley here on turf among her $1 million bagged.
4th Race
A 6-furlong non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer kicks off the $267K carryover pick 6. Favorites are 5-14 this current meet in claiming races with an average winner 4-1 odds (high 10-1). Turfway preppers have 6 of the wins, leading Fair Grounds and Tampa (2 each). The TP reps here are Xtrasaucewelldone, Very Wealthy, Riviere and One Stormy Lady. The 7 claiming sprints have been dominated by early speed with 6 winners on or near the lead after the first half-mile (average winner three-quarters of a length ahead at that point). Identifying the pace players in this race is not an easy task on paper, perhaps Little Sass most capable from an inner draw under a hustling Jesus Castanon and fresh from a layoff. Her $40,000 maiden claiming score at Horseshoe Indianapolis arguably is the best win on paper in this non-winners of 2 lifetime, an angle I always respect. Berlaine drops in class and runs back on short rest from opening day 20 days ago. She ran a good race off just 13 days’ rest in February at Fair Grounds. There’s not a lot of confidence here, but I can’t take an 8-5 morning line favorite (Frosted Diamond) who is 1-20 lifetime and for a barn that’s 0-17 this year.
5th Race
This swing race in the early and late pick 5 is a turf marathon first-level (N1X) allowance at 1-1/2 miles. We’ve had 36 turf marathon ALW routes in Spring Meets since 2008, favorites winning 12 and an average winner a solid 5-1. These have been good betting races. Gulfstream preppers have dominated with 19 wins (Tampa next-best with 4) and they make up 6 of the 10 entries. The average winner is nearly 5 lengths back after the opening half-mile. Trainer Shug McGaughey already has a 12F turf ALW win at the current meet and looks for a second with Brees via GP. Todd Pletcher won a similar race here in ’23 Spring with a son of Uncle Mo and looks to repeat that feat with Sgt. Pepper, also via GP. Champagne Juan exits a narrow defeat at Gulfstream behind Utah Beach, who returned April 14 at Keeneland to blow away a turf marathon field by just under 5 lengths. Champagne Juan jockey Jose Ortiz has been Kee’s best rider in turf marathons with a 26% win rate over the last several years. Truly Quality is bred to love the course and gets more distance from a mild close here in the Fall Meet. Note trainer Jonathan Thomas is 9: 1-3-2 at the meet, all but 1 runner firing in the superfecta. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE
6th Race
Starter allowance routers go 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the late pick 4 opens. We’ve had 10 starter allowance races at the current meet, favorites winning 6 and an average winner just 5-2 odds. Only 1 topped 7-2 (high 7-1). Play it close to the vest. Turfway (4) and Fair Grounds (3) have accounted for the bulk of the winners. Joe Sharp has one of those starter victories on the meet and looks for another with Brown Liquor Man. Beaumont Red won for a maiden special weight last out and has the best win in the field, responding to first-time blinkers in that Fair Grounds race at 19-1. Trainer Ian Wilkes is one to watch during Week 4 of the meet historically and he has Dr. Kringle in here, by sharp Kee dirt route sire Creative Cause. This one didn’t run a jump the prior try at Keeneland, but has a history of bouncing back from poor efforts with vastly improved ones.
7th Race
Classy, third-level (N3X) allowance sprinters square off in this one Favorites are 6-18 in dirt ALW races at the current meet with all 18 winners 7-1 or less (average winner 3-1). Stick close to the script. All 7 ALW sprint winners on dirt this meet have been within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner a half-length back at that point). You want to be up in the early mix. Brad Cox has a pair of ALW sprint wins on dirt this stanza and aims for another with Eyeing Clover. Dominant Spring Meet Week 4 historical trainer Wesley Ward has Eye Witness, while Ian Wilkes, another with some Week 4 prowess on a lesser scale than Ward, has Bourbon Heist. The latter was a blowout winner here in Spring ’23 closing week over this same trip.
8th Race
First-level (N1X) allowance turf routers match up over 1-3/16 miles. We’ve had 11 turf route ALW races this meet coming into closing week, favorites winning 6, but also 3 winners at $20 plus mutuels. Classy filly Style Points drops out of graded stakes placings and should be formidable. Gulfstream preppers hold a slight 5-3 lead over Fair Grounds. That number isn’t as dominant as we’re used to seeing from the GP crew, but respect Sassy Princess (by sharp Kee turf sire Cairo Prince and for trainer Brendan Walsh, who is coming off a red-hot Week 3 with 4 winners). Only 2 of 11 turf route ALW winners this meet led after the opening half-mile, but only 1 winner closed more than 4 lengths at that point. Being within about 2 lengths has been the winning trip. KEENELAND TURF PICK 3 RACE
9th Race
The finale is a 6-furlong maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. We had 11 MSW races for the 3YOs on dirt this Spring Meet, 5 winning favorites and only 1 winner was above 7-2 odds. Of the 8 such sprints, 7 were won by horses within a head of the lead after the first half-mile, so think speed. Three first-time starters have won the 11 MSWs for this age group on dirt, other wins evenly divided 2 apiece via Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Turfway. Among the first-time starters, most interesting to me is the fast-working Day Dawning and wide-drawn Into Amore bookending the field. Dialed In and Into Mischief have sired winners in similar races this meet and have Dial Home and Into Amore representing. Wesley Ward has 2 wins in these 11 races this season and saddles Same Old Fears.