$265K Carryover Early Pick 5 at Keeneland After-Scratches Update

Keeneland’s $265K carryover early pick 5 is a doozy and begins with Race 1 at 1:00 pm ET. There are no standout singles. I was initially bold on singling Runaway Kitten in Race 5, but after scratches, the fact that Enchant drew into the race, it’s a 2-deep necessity for me.

My ticket at a using the picks below and any additions would be 3 x 2 x 5 (adding #5,#3) x 4 (adding #7) x 2 = $120 for .50 cents. It’s not an easy sequence.

Here are the updated picks:

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 9, 2024                                      

What to Watch for Today: A $265,934 early pick 5 carryover opens Week 2 of the Fall Meet and could draw a $2-$3 million pool of new money. Note with an 8-race card, Races 4 & 5 today will be swing races in the early and late pick 4s and pick 5s. Put the extra work into those races, and, of course, the carryover sequence. There’s no better money to chase in horse race betting than carryover money – it can’t beat you and it only adds to your payoff when you’re right.

No Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today with only 2 grass races scheduled. Bettors are enjoying a takeout reduction in the daily double this year, now offered at a low 15% rake reduced by 7 points from prior years.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies and a forecasted high of 75 degrees are expected to continue an amazing weather meet so far.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).                                             

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

We get our second starter allowance of the Fall Meet to open this $265K carryover pick 5 sequence. And, like Sunday’s winner Like a Saltshaker, we have a horse coming back who essentially won this exact race last year on the fillies’ side, Samarita. Not only did she win this race last October, but she won the similar starter allowance offered during the ’24 Spring Meet. Favorites underperform at 10-38 (26%) in Fall Meet starter allowance sprints, though Like a Saltshaker did score as the chalk here Sunday. The average winner is just a tick under 6-1 odds. Churchill preppers have an 18-4 edge over Kentucky Downs in these spots, good news for Forever Home, Mazoku, Sequin Lady and Protomagic. Trainers Robertino Diodoro and Juan Cano won similar starter sprints last Fall and have Never Sway and Protomagic in the field.

2nd Race

Maiden claimers kick off the early pick 4. Favorites are a strong 33-82 (40%) in maiden claiming sprints for older horses during Fall Meets, but identifying even who deserves to be favored here is an exercise. Trainers Wesley Ward, Wayne Catalano and Dale Romans have all posted multiple winners in these spots at solid percentages and have Idiosyncrasies and Fly By Night (Ward), Grand Illusion (Catalano) and Tie Breaker Lennie (Romans). First-time starters account for only 2 of the 82 winners, so lean experience. Churchill preppers have 28 wins, followed by 11 from Kentucky Downs and 8 via Ellis. This is a very tough call and a major spread race in the multi-race bets for me. I’ll take a flyer on the Catalano charge Grand Illusion adding blinkers at 15-1 morning line.

3rd Race

The pick 6 starts here with a 6-furlong, dual-condition claimer. It’s for non-winners of 3 lifetime races or 3-year-olds of any accomplishment level. The 3-year-old Dutch Mills, for example, already has 5 times but is eligible to compete. We get 5-6 such sprints in a typical Fall Meet, and they play fairly in terms of normal winning favorites’ levels and average payouts. Trainer Joe Sharp had a big opening weekend at Keeneland and sends out Invulnerable, a class-dropping son of Practical Joke, a fabulous Kee dirt sire. Churchill preppers have won 19 of 48 such dual-condition claimers in Fall at any distance and are represented by Sound Doctrine, Normandy Hero and Chryso Alogo. Normandy Hero was a Keeneland allowance winner here last Fall as a 2-year-old and has the only local success in the field. It’s just a field of 7 going 7 furlongs and we mentioned last week the strength of jockey Luis Saez in these kind of races. He can be the difference and pilots Improbable Journey, whose poor start at Saratoga last time is a viable excuse for a poor effort.

4th Race

A swing race in the early and late pick 5, this is a 6-1/2 furlong claimer at the $16K level. At this class and distance, the trends lead solidly to forward speed and horses who ran at this distance or shorter last out. That’s not a big help with 10 of 12 exiting the proper distance and a race loaded with early pace types. Massive class droppers in this race also make it an extremely difficult read. A few interesting jockey angles here since the horses are hard to separate: Jose Ortiz (Just Say When, who is a Kee winner on dirt and turf), wins 28% in 6-1/2 furlong sprints at Kee and is 22-47 in the exacta; Luis Saez (Tallahatchiebridge) wins 25% at this distance at Kee with a strong positive ROI. And note Tallahatchiebridge trainer Eddie Kenneally has a sharp 31: 10-4-8 record here at this distance over the years.

5th Race

This swing race is part of the early and late pick 4 as well as the early and late pick 5. It’s our first turf race of the day, for older maiden special weights at 1-1/8 miles. Favorites are just 12-49 (24%) in Fall Meet elder turf MSW routes going back to 2011 in our datatebase. But only 2 winners top 11-1, so there are great betting races, not necessarily chaos (average winner just over 5-1 odds). Kentucky Downs preppers lead NYRA (Sar/Bel) 17-13 in wins, but this feel is almost exclusively a KD cast. At the 1-1/8 miles trip in these past Fall races, 9 of 11 winners were within 4 lengths after the first half-mile – 6 within a single length of the front (average winner just 2 lengths back at that point). Tactical speed with a slower pace has been beneficial. Horses adding distance have been equally as effective as those who’ve run this far or longer last time out. In that vein, Runaway Kitten is my upset pick stretching out off sprints. Her pedigree has been screaming for more distance. Let’s see if she can’t be in the hunt all the way in a wide open race. Keep an eye on the also-eligible list here as Weighted Average and Enchant are legitimate players if they draw into the race.

6th Race

It’s our first 2-year-old route MSW on dirt this Fall Meet. Dornoch won a similar race here last year and went on to win this summer's Belmont Stakes. We don’t get as many of these as we once did, typically 6-7 a meet has shrunken to 2-3 per meet in recent years. But we have 50 in the database and they’re quite formful. Favorites win 46% with an average winner 7-2, one of the chalkier profiles at Keeneland. Churchill preppers have a massive 24-8 edge on NYRA (Sar/Bel) in terms of winners and only 3 first-time starters have scored. The CD crew here includes 7 runners. Don’t over-emphasize the distance of the most recent start, it’s nearly equal between those with a route prep and those without, 26-24 in favor. Fever Night’s sire Curlin was responsible for similar winners here in the ’16 and ’22 Fall Meets. Look for horses with some tactical ability. About 85% of the winners in these races are within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 1-3/4 lengths back at that point). In a race with little pace on paper projected, Whiskey Shot could be dangerous under Flavien Prat with a good post 3 and early interest if you’re looking for an upsetter or a price to use in the exotics under a more logical player.

7th Race

Wednesday’s allowance feature in a second-level (N2X) sprint at 6 furlongs. The first 3 dirt ALW sprints of the Fall Meet last week produced winners at 1-2, 6-5 and 2-1. Trainer Brad Cox had the shortest of those prices and could add another if Silver Rose is successful. His 9 such victories in Fall Meets are most of any trainer (1 more than Wesley Ward), though Ian Wilkes has done well in these spots with 5 such wins and has Sing a Little Song to challenge. Churchill-prepped horses have a 48-33 edge over those from NYRA, which Silver Rose will try to build on. Speed will be key with an average winner in these races over 6F in Fall just a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile. None of these runners have achieved local success as the field is 4: 0-0-1 on the Keeneland dirt combined.

8th Race

We wrap the day with a first-level (N1X) turf route allowance at 1-1/16 miles. Kentucky Downs preppers won 9 of 15 turf route ALW races last year and split the pair opening weekend with Saratoga. The KD foursome here are Clever Mischief, Born Flashy, Thornbury and El Rey Rey. Favorites win just 28% in Fall turf route ALW races with an average winner at 6-1. Trainer Brendan Walsh won a pair of these races last Fall and one was via Indy like Katheeb bids. Of the 9 turf races opening weekend, 2 were won on the front end while the average winner was 3 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile.