$25 Winner Saturday: Jeremy's Free Sunday Keeneland Plays Set

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 8, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Sunday wraps opening weekend with the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes as one of the track’s most important annual showcases. The supporting races include the Indian Summer and Bourbon Stakes bookending the feature at the tail of the 10-race card.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,8,10 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temps in the low 60s are in a beautiful autumn forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

Race 1

Dual-condition claimers open the card and the early pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others. Mohaaafeth in the only Churchill runner in this lineup and I’m always willing to give a 1-turn miler a look going the short-stretch trip at Keeneland around 2 turns. The average 1-1/16 miles dirt winner at Keeneland is 2.1 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, but that reduces to 1.6 lengths back when you have fields of 6 or fewer like this. You’ll want to stay closer to the pace.

Race 2

The second $100,000 maiden claiming race of the Fall Meet starts the early pick 4 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. Ellis prepper JJ’s Joker won the initial offering and we’ll have 3 of 6 entered in this race via Ellis: Eyes of Gold, Queen of Missoula and Gather. The average 1-1/16 miles dirt winner at Keeneland is 2.1 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, but that reduces to 1.6 lengths back when you have fields of 6 or fewer like this. You’ll want to stay closer to the pace. Horses who prepped at a mile or longer on dirt are statistically preferred at this class/distance, which limits to Eyes of Gold and Queen of Missoula. I do think Rita’s On the Beach is interesting if a pair price for a patient Ian Wilkes barn that finally gets this one long on dirt in the third start. Declan Cannon has outstanding marks riding 1-1/16 miles short fields on the Kee main over the years and this race could be a cat-and-mouse game among the pilots.

Race 3

Mid-level open $32,000 claimers sprint 6-1/2 furlongs in the main track in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet mid-level claimers ($20,000-$40,000) are for formful races with an average winner just 7-2 odds. The Churchill preppers dominate with no other circuit asserting any consistent success. That’s good news for Choctaw Bingo and Icy Stare Down. Brewhouse invades from Canterbury for trainer Mac Robertson, a barn that won with a Cby raider on opening day Friday. Love of My Heart is a track and distance winner here during the 2020 Fall Meet, this field’s only positive local running line.

Race 4

Maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt next on the program. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet route MCL races lean toward Churchill preppers who last raced at a mile or longer on dirt. Also give extra credence to horses within five lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, but not necessarily on the lead. Lost Love, Collier and Choctaw Grace are the CD reps here and all ran the requisite prep distance. Choctaw Love should be closest to the early pace among that trio and the most effective. Trainer Riley Mott had an eye-catching maiden winner on opening day Friday and looks for another with Been Real Busy. Brad Cox is a strong 10: 3-2-3 with his last 10 turf-to-dirt moves in Keeneland maiden claimers like Collected Success tries, 2 of those 3 wins coming when similarly moving from MSW to MCL at the same time.

Race 5

Allowance turf sprinters clash in the kickoff leg to the Sunday pick 6 as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf sprint ALW races is to look for finishers. A winner has been twice as likely to have been 3 lengths or more back after the half-mile mark than to have been on the lead. But that average winner’s margin shrinks to just 1 length back at that juncture when you have Fall Meet fields of 7 or less – field size matters. The pace here looks hot with Souper Quest, Crocodilehunter and No Nay Hudson battling. Kentucky Downs preppers have had a modest edge in wins, but not overwhelming other regions. Bling won a similar race on opening day Friday via KD. Hidden Path and Mounsieur Coco are your KD reps here, the former for Todd Pletcher, whose 8 turf sprint wins at Kee are second-most of any trainer. Problem is, Wesley Ward has 46 and will send out No Nay Hudson.

Race 6

The late pick 5 starts with an entry-level (N1X) allowance sprint at the about 7-furlong distance. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. Also don’t overemphasize speed at this class and 7F distance. Only about 10% of these races are won wire-to-wire but the average winner is within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Seeking Unity, Track Mate and Can’t Hush This are the CD preppers involved and the latter pair both are by top-notch local Kee dirt sires Not This Time and Union Rags, respectively. It’s interesting here so many horses come off long layoffs. Only 3 of 27 winners in similar Fall Meet races were horses who had not raced in August or more recently. That’s a knock on Cant Be Doin That, Seeking Unity and Wico.

Race 7

Elder maiden special weight sprinters dash 7 furlongs on dirt in the late pick 4 leadoff. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet elder MSW dirt races lean extremely hard to experienced horses. Only about 6% have been won by first-time starters. Churchill preppers far and away have been most successful, while horses with tactical early speed have been most effective in the 7-furlong offerings at this level. The CD preppers don’t inspire here, but expect KD-prepped Tunisian Spring and Wicked Again to be forwardly placed and effective in a field that lacks any other real solid options. Curlin colt Citizen may improve over a dirt surface the sire’s offspring do well with, while rookie Microbeastie is by sharp Kee dirt sire Super Saver, who had a winner at this 7F trip on opening day in ALW company.

Race 8

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint hopefuls square off in the Indian Summer Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs on grass, the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three today. This race inaugurated in 2018 and in its 5 previous editions, Saratoga (3) and Kentucky Downs (2) preppers have split the trophies. Trainer Steve Asmussen won it last year with Private Creed and looks to repeat with Candymaker. Wesley Ward has a pair of Indian Summer victories and can take a third via Bledsoe, who was a local dirt debut winner here in April. Never overlook Ward in Kee turf sprints. Note his 46 such wins here in the database dwarf everyone else (Todd Pletcher 8, Rusty Arnold 7 are a distant next-best).Sires of the last 2 Indian Summer winners are back here, Midshipman with Amidst Waves and Jimmy Creed with Pinotslilgirl.

Race 9

The Grade 1 $600,000 Spinster Stakes matches top Breeders’ Cup Distaff division rivals over 1-1/8 miles. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, each Spinster winner has been 7-1 or less and we’ve had back-to-back winners at 2-5 odds, Letruska and Malathaat. Expect the good ones to deliver their game, namely the matchup between Personal Ensign Stakes 1-2 finishers Idiomatic and Nest. Over the last 7 editions, the average Spinster winner has been only 1-1/2 lengths back after the opening half-mile with no deep closers winnings. Idiomatic has the pace edge and it will be up to Nest to keep her in check. Six of those 9 Spinster winners came via New York like the favored pair and it’s hard to envision any scenario where one of them doesn’t win this. Nest’s trainer Todd Pletcher does have a record 5 Spinster wins to his credit and got the meet off to a good stakes start Friday in taking the Alcibiades with NY raider Candied.

Race 10

The finale is the Grade 2 $200,000 Bourbon Stakes for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf aspirants and also wraps the Keeneland Turf Pick Three at 1-1/16 miles on grass. This race has been evenly split the last decade between Kentucky Downs (5) and New York (4) preppers. It’s an overwhelming 15 of 17 winners in the database who prepped last on turf and 14 of them at a mile or longer. Looking for KD/NY turf route preppers limits the cast to Nomos, Double Your Money and First World War in the main body of the field (as well as all three also-eligibles). The average winner has been a notable 4-1/4 lengths back after the opening half-mile, a definite closers profile. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won 5 times here in that span and sends out Noted and Nomos as well as also-eligible Tireless. Mark Casse counters with 4 wins in the last 17 years and saddles Can Group. Pletcher got the meet off to a good stakes start Friday in taking the Alcibiades with 2-year-old NY raider Candied. From a pedigree standpoint, sire War Front’s offspring love the local turf and First World War could be formidable off a KD mile win in his debut.